The story of global power transition does not begin in the future. To understand where we are heading, we must first look back. The decline of one hegemon and the rise of another is not a sudden shift but a long process, written over decades of ambition, strategy, and structural change.
This section offers two background primers. They explain how the United States came to dominate the post-war order and how China emerged as the only serious challenger to that order. Together, they provide the context for the scenarios we develop about what might come next.
The American Century
USA as Global Hegemon traces the path from post-1945 ascendancy to the high-water mark of U.S. influence. It shows how military might, economic leadership, and the dollar’s unique role created an era of unrivalled dominance — and how those foundations are now eroding.
China’s Emergence
China as Global Challenger follows China’s extraordinary transformation from poverty to industrial power. It highlights how state planning, technology adoption, and global integration turned China into the only nation capable of contesting U.S. primacy — and why its trajectory still shapes the decades ahead.
These essays are not forecasts. They are the prologue to our scenarios. The past explains the present, and the present sets the boundaries of the possible future. By grounding our analysis in history, we can better explore the uncertain decade to come.