The looming shutdown is more than budget drama. It’s a lever that can rewire power inside Washington, stress‑test U.S. governance, and reshape perceptions abroad. We map the catalysts, explain how a shutdown can operate as a deliberate strategy, outline the incentives to keep it going, and connect the dots to our long‑horizon Scenario 4.
The United States emerged from World War II with unprecedented power. In 1945 it produced nearly half of global GDP, controlled three-quarters of the world’s gold reserves, and possessed a nuclear monopoly. The dollar, fixed to gold at $35 per ounce, became the backbone of the Bretton Woods system. American factories built 75% of the