The looming shutdown is more than budget drama. It’s a lever that can rewire power inside Washington, stress‑test U.S. governance, and reshape perceptions abroad. We map the catalysts, explain how a shutdown can operate as a deliberate strategy, outline the incentives to keep it going, and connect the dots to our long‑horizon Scenario 4.
Each September, the United Nations General Assembly (UNGA) offers leaders a stage to frame their visions of the future. In 2025, the most striking image was not a speech but rows of empty seats. The optics told their own story: the UN’s legitimacy is fading just as the world order itself is fragmenting. A Weakening
The United States emerged from World War II with unprecedented power. In 1945 it produced nearly half of global GDP, controlled three-quarters of the world’s gold reserves, and possessed a nuclear monopoly. The dollar, fixed to gold at $35 per ounce, became the backbone of the Bretton Woods system. American factories built 75% of the