The global order is shifting as U.S. power wanes and China advances its bid for leadership. No single forecast can capture how the next decade will unfold. Instead, we use scenarios: structured stories of what the world could look like by 2035 if certain conditions hold.
Scenarios are not predictions. They help us test assumptions, identify risks, and position capital across very different futures. All three paths below share the same foundation of assumptions, but differ in how those assumptions play out. Where an assumption is critical, we mark whether the scenario requires it to hold (✓) or to fail (✗).
Master assumptions table*
| Assumption | Peaceful Transition | Engineered Crisis | The Great Unwinding |
|---|---|---|---|
| US constitutional stability | ✓ 0.70 | ✗ 0.65 | ✗ 0.30 |
| No engineered great-power conflict | ✓ 0.70 | ✗ 0.60 | ✗ 0.20 |
| Financial stability | ✓ 0.80 | ✗ 0.55 | ✗ 0.20 |
| Trade managed through negotiation | ✓ 0.60 | ✗ 0.40 | ✗ 0.15 |
| Ukraine settlement | ✓ 0.60 | ✓ 0.60 | ✗ 0.25 |
| Palestine conflict containment | ✓ 0.45 | ✗ 0.45 | ✗ 0.20 |
| DPRK nuclear restraint | ✓ 0.55 | ✗ 0.55 | ✗ 0.25 |
| Reduced Russia–NATO provocations | ✓ 0.55 | ✗ 0.55 | ✗ 0.25 |
| Climate action momentum | ✓ 0.65 | ✓ 0.65 | ✗ 0.40 |
| UN legitimacy | ✓ 0.60 | ✓ 0.60 | ✗ 0.30 |
| Aggregate scenario probability | ~33% | ~29% | ~38% |
* Whether the scenario requires it to hold (✓) or to fail (✗)
Peaceful Transition
China advances its long-term strategy to become the global stabiliser, presenting itself as guarantor of a “new thousand-year peace and prosperity.” Trade remains vital: China must keep markets open to secure its role as the world’s leading producer. The U.S., still powerful, avoids engineered crises and manages competition through containment. By 2035, a tense but stable multipolar balance is in place.
Read the full Peaceful Transition scenario.
Engineered Crisis
The United States seeks to block Beijing’s ascent, manufacturing crises both at home and abroad. Naval patrols, sanctions, arms sales, and domestic militarisation are used as political theatre. Escalation risks rise, including the chance of conventional or nuclear confrontation. By 2035, crisis is institutionalised: volatility is permanent, defence and cyber thrive, and trade-dependent sectors struggle.
Read the full Engineered Crisis scenario.
The Great Unwinding
Washington’s attempt to disrupt China fails and backfires. A permanent shutdown begins in 2025; by 2028, the presidential election collapses into stalemate. States rebel against federal authority, secession talk grows, and the U.S. defaults on its debt. China accelerates Treasury divestment into gold, while allies shift toward Beijing. By 2035, the U.S. is fractured and irrelevant, while China proclaims itself guarantor of global stability.
Read the full Great Unwinding scenario.
References
Schoemaker, P. J. H. (1995). Scenario Planning: A Tool for Strategic Thinking. MIT Sloan Management Review.
Shell (n.d.). Shell Scenarios. Available at: https://www.shell.com/energy-and-innovation/the-energy-future/scenarios.html